Drop in HDB Resale Flat Prices in Q1 No Cause for Panic Among Condo Buyers

The 0.1 per cent decline in HDB resale prices in Q1 2026 ends a prolonged growth streak that lasted since Q2 2019. However, context is crucial: the last time HDB resale prices experienced a sustained correction, the HDB Resale Price Index fell 12.4 per cent between Q3 2013 and Q2 2017 over nearly four years. The current dip is negligible by comparison and more likely reflects a natural breather after years of robust appreciation rather than the start of a structural downturn.

Analysts attribute the slight softening to a combination of higher supply from new Build-To-Order (BTO) completions entering the market and buyers exercising more caution following successive rounds of cooling measures. With mortgage rates still elevated, some buyers are being more selective, particularly in the mass-market segment.

Despite the marginal price dip, the million-dollar HDB flat segment continues to surge. A total of 412 HDB resale flats transacted at S$1 million or more in Q1 2026 alone, up 17.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter. A five-room flat on Henderson Road set a new all-time HDB record of S$1.73 million, while mature estate prices remain elevated with median four-room resale prices hitting S$1.04 million in Queenstown and S$1 million in Toa Payoh.

This divergence between headline price indices and premium segment performance highlights the two-speed nature of the HDB resale market. Well-located flats in mature estates with remaining leases above 70 years continue to appreciate strongly, while the broader market sees modest adjustments.

Private home prices rose 0.9 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, accelerating from 0.6 per cent in Q4 2025. The strong performance of new launches such as Tengah Garden Residences, which sold 853 of 863 units (99 per cent), demonstrates sustained demand for well-priced private homes. The private market is being supported by upgraders from HDB, whose properties retain strong resale values even with the marginal index dip.

For prospective condo buyers considering an upgrade from HDB, the message is clear: the underlying HDB asset remains resilient, million-dollar transactions are at record levels, and the slight index correction does not materially erode the equity available for a private property purchase. Timing the market on a 0.1 per cent move would be counterproductive given the broader upward trajectory in private home prices.