Canberra Drive EC Land Price Could Fall to S$630 psf ppr, the Lowest Since September 2022
Update, 2 October 2026
The tender closed on 1 October well above these forecasts. A consortium led by Santarli Realty bid S$163.9 million, or S$825 per square foot per plot ratio, a record for EC land, with 13 bids submitted against the three to six analysts expected. Read our report on the result here. The forecasts below are preserved as published.
The executive condominium site at Canberra Drive closed its tender on Thursday 1 October. It is the first EC site to close since the government raised the EC household income ceiling in August and tightened EC rules in May. Analysts expect a top bid of S$630 to S$700 per square foot per plot ratio, which at the lower end would be the cheapest EC land since September 2022.
Units The Site Can Yield
Expected psf ppr Range
New EC Income Ceiling
New Minimum Occupation Period
Why This Tender Matters
The Canberra Drive site is on the confirmed list of the first-half government land sales programme and can yield 185 units. Analysts told Lianhe Zaobao that the result will not only reflect the impact of a series of EC policy adjustments, but will serve as an important weathervane for EC land and home prices more broadly.
Two changes converge on this site. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong announced at the National Day Rally that the monthly household income ceiling for EC purchases would rise from S$16,000 to S$18,000, applying to new projects whose land tenders close on or after 24 August. Separately, EC rules were tightened in May, extending the minimum occupation period to 10 years, ending the deferred payment scheme and raising the first-timer quota.
The two adjustments pull in opposite directions. Widening the pool of eligible buyers should stimulate demand, while the tighter rules reduce the EC’s appeal as a short-term investment vehicle.
A Higher Income Ceiling May Not Mean Higher Prices
PropNex chief executive Ismail Gafoor said the push and pull of the EC measures makes it genuinely complicated for developers to assess the site’s value and set a bidding strategy, and that it is hard to judge which policy will have the greater effect. He expects developers to take a more cautious and rational approach to pricing.
“A higher EC income ceiling widens the pool of eligible buyers, but whether it pushes EC prices up depends on the balance between demand, supply and location,” he said. He stressed that new EC prices have already risen sharply in recent years, and that developers must weigh the affordability pressure facing first-time buyers and HDB upgraders.
URA Realis data as at 13 September shows the median price of new EC units is now S$1,844 psf, 57 per cent higher than the S$1,175 psf recorded in 2021. Over the same period the total price of a new EC unit rose 49 per cent, from S$1.23 million to S$1.828 million.
The arithmetic on the income ceiling is sobering. Raising it from S$16,000 to S$18,000 lifts a buyer’s maximum housing loan from roughly S$1 million to about S$1.13 million. Against the current median EC price, that still leaves around S$700,000 to be found from cash and CPF, which the report describes as a heavy financial burden for younger buyers.
Where Land Prices Have Been
Lee Sze Teck said that with the EC income ceiling adjusted, developers are expected to stay cautious when bidding and new EC land prices will trend lower.
“The Canberra Drive site’s land price is expected to come in between S$630 and S$700 psf ppr. As for the second site also affected by the EC measures, Admiralty Walk, which is expected to close in December, the land price could fall further to between S$530 and S$630 psf ppr,” he said.
EC land tender results over the past two years, in psf ppr, per Lianhe Zaobao and URA: Coastal Cabana, S$729, August 2024. Rivelle Tampines, S$768, October 2024. Senja Close site, S$771, August 2025. Woodlands Avenue 17 site, S$782, August 2025. Sembawang site, S$692, September 2025. Woodlands Avenue 17 site, S$794, January 2026. Miltonia Close site, S$732, April 2026.
Recent EC land prices have generally exceeded S$700 psf ppr. If Canberra Drive comes in at only S$630 psf ppr, it would be the lowest EC land price since the September 2022 Bukit Batok West Avenue 5 site that became Lumina Grand, which sold at S$626 psf ppr. If Admiralty Walk were to reach S$530 psf ppr, a lower price would likely have to be traced back to the 2016 Sengkang site that became Rivercove Residences, at S$355 psf ppr.
The Interest Rate Factor
Beyond the EC measures, mortgage rates have drawn attention. The report notes that following the US Federal Reserve’s resumption of rate cuts, local mortgage rates have risen. According to Monetary Authority of Singapore data, as at Friday 25 September the three-month compounded Singapore Overnight Rate Average, one of the benchmarks used for home loans, rose to 1.2251 per cent, the highest level this year.
SRI’s research and data analytics head said higher mortgage rates may prompt prospective EC buyers to take a more cautious approach, but does not believe rising rates will substantially weaken the EC’s appeal. Existing EC projects are selling well and remaining inventory has fallen to relatively low levels, while several unlaunched EC projects are expected to be affected by the latest policy changes. On that basis, EC demand and prices are expected to remain firm in the near term despite higher rates.
Frequently Asked Questions
What changed for ECs?
In May, rules were tightened: the minimum occupation period was extended to 10 years, the deferred payment scheme was ended and the first-timer quota was raised. In August, the monthly household income ceiling rose from S$16,000 to S$18,000, applying to projects whose land tenders close on or after 24 August.
What is the expected land price?
Lee Sze Teck expects S$630 to S$700 psf ppr for Canberra Drive, and S$530 to S$630 psf ppr for the Admiralty Walk site closing in December. Recent EC land prices have generally exceeded S$700 psf ppr.
Would S$630 be a record low?
It would be the lowest EC land price since September 2022, when the Bukit Batok West Avenue 5 site that became Lumina Grand sold at S$626 psf ppr.
How much have EC prices risen?
The median new EC price is S$1,844 psf as at 13 September, 57 per cent above the S$1,175 psf of 2021. Total unit prices rose 49 per cent from S$1.23 million to S$1.828 million over the same period.
Does the higher income ceiling help affordability?
Only marginally. It lifts the maximum housing loan from about S$1 million to S$1.13 million, which against a median EC price of S$1.828 million still leaves around S$700,000 to be found from cash and CPF.
Considering an executive condominium?
The higher income ceiling widens who can apply but barely moves what you can afford. With a 10-year MOP now attached, it is worth checking the maths properly before you commit.