Asia-Pacific Office Demand Should Withstand AI Disruption as Growth Moderates, CBRE Says

CBRE’s base case, which assumes no AI-related job displacement, has occupied office space growing 18 per cent from 2026 to 2030. Office employment is forecast to grow 9 per cent under the moderate scenario, against 14 per cent in the base case. Even under the rapid-displacement scenario, in which organisations aggressively automate routine office functions and a majority of vulnerable positions are displaced, office employment in Apac is projected to expand 2 per cent over the period. Under the slow-displacement scenario, growth would be 12 per cent.

CBRE estimated that just 1.8 per cent of total employment in Apac is vulnerable to AI, meaning occupations with high exposure but low capacity to adapt. A further 8 per cent of the workforce is potentially at risk, with high exposure but better scope to adapt through reskilling and occupational mobility. Developed economies have a higher ratio of vulnerable jobs. Office workers account for more than 35 per cent of employment in Singapore, Hong Kong and Australia, against less than 10 per cent in Indonesia and Vietnam.

CBRE expects occupied office space to expand slightly faster than office employment from 2026 to 2030, as occupiers rebalance portfolios amid higher workplace utilisation under stricter return-to-office policies, less aggressive space-efficiency targets and continued confidence in long-term business growth. In developed Apac markets, occupiers are expected to replenish space after several years of portfolio optimisation, supporting 5 per cent growth in occupied office space over the five years under a moderate scenario. In developing markets, structural upgrading, including the growth of tertiary industries and migration to institutional-grade offices, is expected to support 19 per cent growth under the same scenario.

Under the base case, overall Apac office vacancy is projected to ease from 16 per cent in the second quarter of 2026 to 15 per cent by 2030, as occupied space growth outpaces new supply. Under the moderate displacement scenario, vacancy rises to 18 per cent by 2030. Ada Choi, CBRE’s Apac head of research, said: “Even if AI moderates office demand growth, we do not foresee a major supply-demand imbalance emerging in Apac.” Tom Gaffney, Apac head of leasing, said AI would increasingly take over routine tasks, making collaborative and client-facing work “even more valuable”.

While AI is unlikely to increase overall vacancy, it could widen the gap between prime and secondary assets. CBRE expects demand to concentrate in top-quality buildings in core districts, where shrinking development pipelines keep space in relatively short supply, while secondary buildings face more pressure to compete on connectivity and quality. It expects this mismatch to accelerate refurbishment, repositioning and conversion of older office properties.