CDL Net Profit Jumps 230.7% to S$301.6M and UOL Rises 23% in H1 as Analysts Turn Cautious on PropNex and Apac Realty

CDL’s H1 revenue came in at S$2.72 billion, 61.1 per cent higher, driven by the full recognition of the completed and fully sold Lumina Grand executive condominium in Bukit Batok. The group’s hotel business returned to a pre-tax profit of S$42 million, from an S$84.4 million loss the year before.

CDL doubled its interim dividend to S$0.06 a share, with net gearing at 75 per cent at end-June. Its shares gained as much as 11 per cent on the morning of the release of its earnings. CDL shares closed up S$0.14 or 1.7 per cent at S$8.25 on Friday, 21 August.

The market was also pleased by news that the group had completed a much-anticipated strategic review, the outcome of which is to be unveiled at end-September. Group CEO Sherman Kwek has said that the review will set out the group’s future strategic direction, capital allocation framework and implementation road map.

OCBC upgraded CDL to a “buy” from “hold”, but trimmed its fair value to S$10.35 from S$10.40. Andy Wong, senior equity research analyst at OCBC, said that recent weakness in CDL’s share price had created value, and that investors are expected to track the outcome of its strategic review.

Phillip Securities Research’s Darren Chan kept his “buy” rating and S$11.32 target price for CDL. CGS International (CGSI) maintained its “add” call and S$12.11 target. DBS analyst Tabitha Foo also retained a “buy” rating with a S$12 target, and RHB Singapore’s Vijay Natarajan kept his “buy” call with an S$11.20 target.

Phillip’s Chan said that CDL’s strategic review could provide rerating potential from an “accelerated pace of asset recycling and deleveraging”. The review could also enable the developer to expand its fund management business and “grow recurring income alongside its development exposure”.

UOL also retained broad analyst support after the group posted a 23 per cent year-on-year increase in net profit to S$252.2 million in its H1. DBS’ Foo maintained her “buy” rating and S$13 target price, and CGSI analyst Raymond Yap kept his “add” call and S$12.83 target. OCBC’s Wong also maintained his “buy” rating and raised his fair value slightly to S$12.92 from S$12.87.

The analysts highlighted UOL’s residential pipeline as a source of further earnings potential, and noted its continued strength in its property development and investment businesses. CGSI highlighted UOL’s office and retail rental reversions, respectively at 7.3 per cent and 5.5 per cent in H1, which the property developer expects will persist in the foreseeable future.

CGSI is also watching UOL’s Marina Square redevelopment, which is expected to add 702 residential units to the group’s pipeline. UOL expects to receive written permission from the Urban Redevelopment Authority in the third quarter, and OCBC has already described the project as “one of the most anticipated developments”.

UOL is also preparing to start marketing its mega Thomson Reserve project, a 1,268-unit condominium it is developing on a huge site it acquired in a collective sale with its subsidiary Singapore Land and joint venture partner CapitaLand Development.

DBS’ Foo also noted that the NoMad Hilton Singapore, scheduled to open along Orchard Road in late 2026, is expected to begin contributing to earnings in 2027.

Analyst views were less sanguine on property agencies PropNex and Apac Realty, whose respective project marketing incomes have already taken a hit from a smaller pipeline of new launches. While the pipeline remains well supplied in the near term, new home sales are tapering off slightly from 2025’s four-year high.

PropNex’s net profit fell 3.1 per cent to S$40.9 million in its H1 ended 30 June, even as its revenue edged up 0.7 per cent to S$603 million. The agency’s decline in project marketing income was offset by stronger contributions from Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale, landed resale, leasing and commercial and industrial transactions. PropNex’s market share by transaction volume also rose to 64.3 per cent in H1, from 60.6 per cent in FY2025.

Apac Realty, the parent of ERA Singapore, saw H1 net profit fall 16.8 per cent to S$9.4 million, with revenue sliding 3.6 per cent to S$329.3 million amid lower transaction volumes.

DBS’ Foo estimates that new-sale units available between April and September, expected to be recognised in H2 2026 results, would be less than half that of the year before. She also expects some projects, including the roughly 1,000-unit Chuan Grove and several executive condominiums, to be pushed into 2027. She maintained her “hold” call and S$1.95 target price.

Maybank Securities’ Eric Ong likewise maintained his “hold” on PropNex but lowered his target price to S$1.95 from S$2, despite raising his earnings estimates for 2026 to 2028 by 4 to 5 per cent on expectations of further market-share gains.

FSMOne Singapore’s Charmaine Tan was more positive, maintaining her “buy” call and S$2.70 target price. She pointed to an estimated 48,000 HDB flats reaching their minimum occupation period between 2026 and 2028, calling this a “dual-commission tailwind” for PropNex. The removal of the 15-month wait-out rule for private property owners buying non-subsidised HDB resale flats could further support demand.

Despite the weaker results, Apac Realty declared a H1 dividend of S$0.055 a share, comprising a S$0.019 interim dividend and a S$0.036 special dividend. The special payout was Apac Realty’s first since 2021 and was a “positive surprise” to RHB.

Natarajan maintained his “buy” rating and raised his target price to S$0.74 from S$0.71. Chan En Jie at Lim and Tan Securities kept to his “accumulate” call and raised his target to S$0.68 from S$0.66.

Both analysts expect Apac Realty’s H2 performance to remain broadly in line with that in H1, although Chan expects its pipeline to strengthen in 2027 as delayed projects come to market. He pointed out that new private home sales are forecast to reach 8,000 to 9,000 units in 2026, excluding executive condominiums, down some 30 per cent from 10,800 units in 2025.