HDB Resale Prices Post First Decline in Nearly Seven Years as Million-Dollar Flats Hit New Records

Singapore’s HDB resale price index dipped 0.1 per cent in Q1 2026, marking the first quarterly decline since mid-2019 and snapping one of the longest unbroken runs of price increases in the public housing market’s history. The flash estimate, released by the Housing and Development Board on 25 April, came as a surprise to some analysts who had expected prices to plateau rather than retreat.

The marginal decline follows a period of gradual deceleration – resale prices rose just 0.3 per cent in Q4 2025 – and reflects the cumulative effect of government cooling measures, a record supply of Build-To-Order (BTO) flats entering the pipeline, and cautious sentiment among buyers wary of elevated interest rates. Despite the price slip, total resale volume surged 19.6 per cent quarter on quarter to 6,285 transactions, suggesting that the slight price moderation actually unlocked pent-up demand from buyers who had been waiting on the sidelines.

Even as the broader resale index turned negative, the million-dollar HDB segment continued its remarkable ascent. A total of 412 flats changed hands at S$1 million or above in Q1 2026, sustaining the elevated transaction pace seen throughout 2025. More significantly, two mature estates – Queenstown and Toa Payoh – saw their median resale prices for four-room flats cross the symbolic S$1 million threshold for the first time.

These transactions are concentrated in centrally located mature estates with excellent MRT connectivity, established amenities, and long remaining leases. Five-room and executive flats in Bishan, Bukit Merah, and Clementi also continue to feature prominently among top-dollar deals. Property analysts note that for many upgraders priced out of the private market, premium resale HDB flats in choice locations offer a compelling alternative – particularly when the price gap to a comparable mass-market condominium remains significant.

The combination of a slight price decline at the index level and sustained strength at the premium end points to a market that is bifurcating rather than weakening outright. With HDB ramping up BTO supply and several large tranches of flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period in the coming quarters, analysts expect overall resale prices to remain broadly flat through 2026.

For buyers, this environment presents an unusual window: a rare pause in the relentless price march, coupled with healthy transaction volumes that ensure a reasonable selection of listings. Sellers in mature estates with well-maintained units and favourable lease tenures continue to command strong prices, while those in less sought-after locations may need to adjust expectations modestly.