Lifting of the 15-Month Wait-Out Period Unlikely to Trigger an HDB Resale Price Surge, NUS Survey Finds

Market watchers do not expect HDB resale prices to surge after the government recently removed the 15-month wait-out period for private property downgraders.

In the Ireus survey, 41 per cent of respondents said they expect prices to moderate or even soften in the coming months, as a substantial supply of flats reach their minimum occupation period. One respondent predicted that the higher monthly income ceiling for Build-To-Order flats and new executive condominiums could divert buyers away from the resale market, bringing prices down.

Another 41 per cent believe the market might make a modest recovery, as returning private homeowners inject fresh demand and offset the past two quarters of price declines. This could translate into price growth of less than 1 per cent per quarter in 2026.

Ireus polled real estate industry senior executives on the impact of recent housing policy changes. Respondents include developers, consultants, financial institutions, professional firms and service providers.

In July, authorities lifted the 15-month wait-out period for private property owners looking to buy a resale flat, having assessed that the cooling measure had met its purpose of moderating demand and easing price growth. The following month, the government raised the monthly income ceiling for BTO flats to S$16,000 for families and S$8,000 for singles, up from S$14,000 and S$7,000. For ECs, the ceiling increased to S$18,000 from S$16,000.

The removal of the wait-out period is set to expand Singapore’s pool of homebuyers in the HDB resale market over the near term, said Professor Qian Wenlan, Ireus director. “Prices may therefore fluctuate as demand returns.”

Of the three market segments, property players expect the Outside Central Region, or suburbs, to experience the strongest price and volume growth from transitioning private homeowners.

Some 55 per cent of respondents believe demand will spread evenly across four and five-room flats in the suburbs, as buyers prioritise unlocking cash proceeds from their private properties over larger HDB unit sizes or central locations.

Nearly a quarter expect demand to be concentrated in larger, legacy units such as executive apartments, maisonettes and jumbo flats. This could boost sales volumes of million-dollar HDB resale flats, they noted.

“Reasonably priced suburban flats offer the most efficient pathway for households to free up private capital for other life-cycle priorities,” Qian said. “However, there is also a distinct segment of the market willing to channel substantial sales proceeds towards high-end flats with ample living space or prime locations.”

Industry insiders also expect the removal of the wait-out period to affect the private market, especially resale supply and rental demand. While private homeowners will no longer need to secure 15 months of interim accommodation, they must sell their private property within six months of completing their HDB resale flat purchase.

Around 40 per cent of respondents therefore expect private resale listings to rise, while nearly 23 per cent predict a drop in interim rental demand, which could moderate rents in mass-market condominiums and suburban flats.

Still, just over a third of respondents project minimal fallout in the secondary market, since most downgraders will sell their private properties before committing to an HDB purchase.

The primary market is expected to hold steady. More than half of respondents said new launches cater to distinct buyer demographics, allowing developers to maintain their planned launch pricing and sales targets without direct competition from resale right-sizers. Another 30 per cent noted that right-sizers will gain from substantial home equity, giving developers a window of opportunity to capture this recycled capital through competitively priced entry-level projects.

“On the whole, survey findings lean heavily towards a restoration of market equilibrium rather than market distortion,” Qian explained. “With private right-sizers dispersing primarily into suburban heartlands and new launch pricing remaining insulated, the lifting of the wait-out rule is anticipated to reinforce market stability and return the HDB resale segment to sound economic fundamentals.”