Mass-Market Home Prices Could Break S$3,000 Psf, Raising Concern After a Record New Upper Changi Road Bid

According to URA’s flash estimates released on Thursday 1 October, prices of non-landed private homes outside the Central Region (OCR) rose 2.2 per cent in the third quarter, the biggest rise among the regions and a clear recovery from a 0.1 per cent dip in the second quarter.

The New Upper Changi Road government land sale site drew attention for its winning bid of about S$1.425 billion, a record for a government site outside the Central Region. The market expects homes on the site to start from around S$3,000 psf, which has raised fears among buyers that this price could become a reference for other mass-market launches.

Selected government land sale sites outside the Central Region. Source: compiled by Lianhe Zaobao from URA and ERA data. Estimated prices are projections, not launch prices.

An ERA Realty executive said whether developers adopt equally high pricing depends on how much buyers will accept, the project location and overall unit prices. The high bid reflects developers’ confidence in demand and could attract HDB upgraders from nearby estates, but developers passing on land, energy and construction costs are limited by buyers’ budgets and alternative housing choices. The sales performance of the new project, he said, will be a more accurate gauge of the market.

Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at SRI, took a similar view. He said a S$3,000 psf price should be read as confidence in the location’s long-term potential rather than a benchmark other mass-market launches will automatically follow. Future OCR pricing will still vary by location, connectivity, project features and overall unit prices. A record launch price at New Upper Changi Road, he added, may not set the standard for other new projects, but it would likely anchor nearby resale prices.

A senior executive at Realion Group agreed on the resale effect: if a new project in an area launches at a record, resale prices will rise, because owners want to narrow the gap and will price against new launches nearby. The ERA executive also said higher new-launch prices help support resale, since buyers with the same budget can often get a larger resale home, especially in well-maintained, well-connected projects. Resale prices still depend on remaining lease, condition, layout and facilities.

The OCR and mid-tier Rest of Central Region (RCR) price gap has narrowed this year. The Realion Group executive said that in the first eight months of 2026 the gap was below 24 per cent, whereas in two quarters last year it exceeded 40 per cent. She noted that the gap swings with the pricing of newly launched projects. The second-quarter dip in OCR prices was mainly due to Tengah Garden Residences, launched in April at a lower average of S$2,120 psf on launch weekend.

Looking ahead, mass-market sales are expected to stay strong. With the 15-month wait-out period for HDB owners removed, she expects upgrader demand to be lifted, and with the government dropping the 15-month wait for private homeowners buying resale HDB flats, she expects more private owners to switch to HDB, especially to larger flats or those in mature estates. Mohan said overall OCR new-launch prices may keep rising, but gains will vary by location and project conditions.

Note: names and titles in this report are summarised from a Chinese-language article and the interviewees’ titles are as reported there.