Q1 2026 Singapore Property Market Review: Momentum Returns but Selectivity Deepens

The all-residential price index rose 0.9 per cent quarter on quarter to 218.3 in Q1 2026, re-accelerating from the 0.6 per cent increase in Q4 2025. Non-landed homes led with a 1.3 per cent gain, with the OCR posting the strongest regional recovery. Landed homes, however, eased 0.4 per cent after a strong 3.4 per cent run in Q4 2025.

Transaction volume told a different story. Total private residential transactions fell 19.2 per cent quarter on quarter to 5,413 units. New sales declined 31.5 per cent to 2,013 units, reflecting a leaner launch calendar compared with Q4’s active pipeline. Resale transactions fell at a milder pace to 3,225 units, lifting resale’s share of total activity to 59.6 per cent, up from 52.7 per cent in Q4. The larger resale share suggests buyers continued to value completed homes with established locations and clearer price benchmarks.

The supply picture widened in Q1 2026. The total pipeline stood at 55,826 units (private residential and executive condominiums), with peak completions expected in 2028 when 11,706 units are scheduled for delivery. Unsold inventory rose 8.3 per cent quarter on quarter to 16,095 units, with the steepest increase in the RCR where no new projects launched during the quarter.

Q1 launches totalled 1,844 units, concentrated entirely in the OCR and CCR. The OCR accounted for 77.8 per cent of launches (1,143 private plus 1,320 EC units), while the CCR contributed 701 units. The RCR recorded zero new launches for the quarter. Unsold inventory by region showed the OCR at 5,636 units, CCR at 5,487 units, and RCR at 4,972 units. The RCR inventory build-up will be a key segment to watch as new projects begin to enter that corridor later in the year.

The HDB resale market continued to demonstrate resilience through Q1 2026. Quarterly resale volume reached 6,074 units, up 20 per cent from Q4 2025, with March’s 2,053 flats closing the quarter on a strong note. The official HDB Resale Price Index eased 0.1 per cent quarter on quarter to 203.4, but remained 1.2 per cent higher year on year, confirming that the market is broadly supported despite some short-term price recalibration.

Million-dollar flat transactions totalled 413 in Q1 2026, up 17.3 per cent from 352 in Q4 2025. Over the past 12 months, 1,663 flats have crossed the million-dollar threshold, underscoring sustained demand at the top end. The rental market also firmed, with quarterly leasing volume reaching 7,221 units and the SRX Rental Index rising 0.7 per cent to 144.5.

The commercial property sector continued to firm in Q1 2026. Grade A office rents extended their growth run for a fifth consecutive quarter, rising 0.8 per cent to S$12.40 per square foot per month. Office vacancy fell to 3.3 per cent, down from 4.5 per cent in Q4 2025, marking a record low. Net absorption in the Core CBD reached 0.2 million square feet during the quarter, signalling robust occupier demand against a tightening supply backdrop.

Capital values for Grade A offices rose 3.3 per cent quarter on quarter to S$3,100 per square foot. In the retail segment, Orchard rents edged up 0.5 per cent to S$38.70 psf per month, while capital values increased 2.6 per cent to S$7,900 psf. Both the office and retail segments are entering a landlord-favourable phase, supported by disciplined supply and selective occupier upgrades.

Industrial fundamentals remained stable in Q1 2026. Overall occupancy edged up 0.2 percentage points to 88.9 per cent, with multi-user factory space holding firm at 89.9 per cent. The rent index gained 0.4 per cent quarter on quarter, while the price index rose 1.2 per cent. Year-on-year trends showed rents up 2.3 per cent and prices climbing 4.6 per cent, pointing to a firm but not overheated industrial market.

Shophouse activity, by contrast, dropped sharply. Q1 2026 recorded just 13 transactions worth S$88 million, the lowest quarterly deal count since Q2 1998 and a 43.5 per cent decline from Q4 2025. The slowdown was concentrated in the CBD core, although pockets of strength persisted in Districts 7 and 8, where a Syed Alwi Road record of S$12,431 psf highlighted continued interest in heritage assets with strong location fundamentals.

Q1 2026 confirms a market that is broadly resilient but increasingly segmented. Private residential growth turned more selective, with the OCR and well-located developments leading while landed homes cooled. The HDB and office markets continued to firm on solid underlying demand, while shophouses paused as buyers turned cautious on pricing.

Looking ahead, private home prices are expected to grow at a measured pace of 3 to 4 per cent for the full year. Developer sales are generally forecast to normalise in the 8,000 to 9,000 unit range (excluding ECs). The pipeline through 2029 remains substantial at 55,826 units, meaning buyer choice will widen and pricing discipline will become increasingly important for developers and resale sellers alike. The overarching theme for 2026 is clear: selectivity rewards research and discipline rewards conviction.