Singapore Record Low Gap Between Births and Deaths Poses Demographic Challenge

The natural increase of 3,365 people in 2025 is a historic low. Annual births typically exceeded deaths by tens of thousands, with the highest at slightly above 52,000 in the late 1950s. Post-independence, that gap shrank to below 10,000 for the first time in 2022, and has continued to narrow since.

The figure is a steep drop from a decade ago, when there were 22,323 more births than deaths in 2015. The trend first appeared in 2022, when deaths exceeded births by 311, widening to 920 in 2023. It briefly reversed in 2024, the Chinese Year of the Dragon, when births exceeded deaths by 99, before slipping back into a deficit in 2025.

In 2025, the Malay, Indian and Others ethnic groups continued to record natural increases of 3,006, 1,199 and 2,231 respectively. The Malays had 6,725 births and 3,719 deaths. There were 3,427 births and 2,228 deaths among Indians, and 2,810 births and 579 deaths for Others.

The crude birth rate fell from 8.6 in 2015 to 5.3 in 2025 for the Chinese, from 13.3 to 11.8 among Malays, and from 10.9 to 7.3 for Indians. The number of Chinese babies born in 2025 fell by 15 per cent compared with 2024.

Singapore has been battling a longstanding baby drought, with the overall number of births in 2025 falling to its lowest in the Republic’s post-independence history. A total of 29,864 babies across all races were born in 2025, an 11.4 per cent fall from 2024. Meanwhile, deaths rose marginally by 0.2 per cent from 26,442 in 2024 to 26,499 in 2025.

A*STAR’s Jean Yeung said that births have fallen “drastically” after the Covid-19 pandemic as fewer couples got married during that period and there are now fewer women of child-bearing age. Tan Poh Lin of the Institute of Policy Studies said the “accelerated” narrowing of the gap marks a demographic transition in which, without immigration, Singapore’s population would begin to decline because the current generation is not having enough children to replace older generations.

Without new interventions, Singapore’s citizen population may start to shrink by the early 2040s, said Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong, who noted in February that births have fallen at an “unprecedented rate”, with the resident total fertility rate hitting a record low of 0.87 in 2025. While the Government’s top priority is to continue supporting Singaporeans in forming families, Gan said a “carefully managed immigration flow” is needed to augment its low birth rate.

Depending on demographic trends, the Government expects to take in between 25,000 and 30,000 new citizens a year over the next five years, higher than the average of 21,300 citizenships granted yearly between 2020 and 2024. About 40,000 people a year may become permanent residents. Singapore Management University law professor Eugene Tan noted that it would be harder for the Government to maintain the current ethnic composition, and that granting more PRs and citizenship to people of Chinese descent is one way to maintain ethnic balance.

As at June 2025, the ethnic Chinese made up 73.9 per cent of Singapore’s resident population, while Malays accounted for 13.5 per cent, Indians 9 per cent and Others 3.5 per cent. Singapore’s ethnic composition has remained broadly stable over the past decade.