HDB Q3 Resale Prices Dip 0.2% Despite Lifting of the 15-Month Wait-Out Period

Early estimates published on 1 October showed HDB resale prices fell by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter. Prices dipped 0.1 per cent in the first quarter, the first time in close to seven years, followed by 0.3 per cent in the second.

HDB resale price index: Q3 2026 flash estimate 202.4, down 0.2 per cent. Q2 2026, 202.8, down 0.3 per cent. Q1 2026, 203.4, down 0.1 per cent. Q4 2025, 203.6, unchanged. Q3 2025, 203.7, up 0.4 per cent.

There were 7,528 transactions in the third quarter of 2026, up 5.2 per cent from 7,157 units in the same period of 2025.

HDB said it has not seen a significant increase in the prices and number of resale flats purchased by private property downgraders following the lifting of the 15-month wait-out period on 28 July. “Nonetheless, we will continue to monitor the resale market,” it said.

Introduced in September 2022, the wait-out period was aimed at curbing demand from cash-rich private home owners looking to buy a resale flat. National Development Minister Chee Hong Tat said the rules were eased because market conditions have improved and HDB resale prices have moderated significantly.

Prices in the private home market rose 1.4 per cent in the third quarter, up from 0.5 per cent in the previous quarter. But transaction volume was down about 30 per cent, falling to 4,296 units from 6,148.

Private residential price index: Q3 2026 flash estimate 222.5, up 1.4 per cent. Q2 2026, 219.4, up 0.5 per cent. Q1 2026, 218.3, up 0.9 per cent. Q4 2025, 216.4, up 0.6 per cent. Q3 2025, 215.1, up 0.9 per cent.

Prices of non-landed properties rose 0.9 per cent across all areas, compared with a 0.1 per cent decrease in the previous quarter. Movements were mixed: the core central region dipped 0.1 per cent after a 1.8 per cent rise, the city fringe was up 0.2 per cent, and the suburbs increased 2.2 per cent. Landed home prices rose 2.8 per cent.

URA said property prices increased by an average of 0.9 per cent per quarter for the first three quarters of 2026, unchanged from the average quarterly increase over the same period in 2025.

Property analysts said the increase in HDB transactions coincided with the lifting of the wait-out period.

Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore, said that despite stronger demand, resale prices fell due to factors like the 13,480 flats that will reach their minimum occupation period in 2026, meaning more flats could come on the market to meet demand. A strong pipeline of Build-To-Order flats and broader eligibility criteria for first-time buyers will also help dampen the impact on prices, he added. In August, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said the BTO income ceiling would be raised from S$14,000 to S$16,000 for families and from S$7,000 to S$8,000 for singles.

Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion Group, said the removal of the wait-out period may not have fully taken effect as it takes time for transactions to be completed. “Following the policy adjustment, there was a noticeable increase in buying interest and sales enquiries from private home owners for HDB resale flats looking to right-size,” she said.

Despite the drop in resale prices, the number of million-dollar flat transactions rose to 597 in the third quarter, up from 491 in the previous quarter. In total, 1,499 million-dollar flats were sold in the first nine months of 2026.

Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia, said there were more five-room and larger flats among the million-dollar transactions, likely driven by private home downgraders. Before cooling measures were eased, buyers aged 55 and above were exempted from the wait-out period if they bought a four-room or smaller resale flat.

About 353 larger flats were sold for at least S$1 million in the third quarter, up from 277 units in the previous quarter. Most of the million-dollar transactions were in Toa Payoh, Queenstown and Bukit Merah.

On the private side, Leonard Tay, research head at Knight Frank Singapore, attributed the price increase to the landed market, where prices rose 4.9 per cent in 2026 so far as buyers upgrade from condominiums. “The removal of the 15-month wait-out period could increase transaction activity in the months ahead as retirees living in landed homes are incentivised to right-size and downgrade to HDB homes,” he added.

Marcus Chu, chief executive of ERA Singapore, said the private market could pick up in the fourth quarter as more condominium projects launch, with about 2,000 new units expected from Lucerne Grand, The Serra Residences and Thomson Reserve.

URA added that 4,745 private homes will be launched under the Government Land Sales programme in the second half of 2026, bringing confirmed supply for the whole year to 9,320 units, more than 50 per cent higher than the average number of units launched each year over the past 10 years. In total, about 60,600 private homes including executive condominiums are expected to be completed in the next few years.

HDB and URA said the macroeconomic outlook remains highly uncertain, and advised households to exercise prudence when purchasing property and taking out mortgage loans. “The Government will continue to monitor the property market closely and adjust its policies as necessary to promote a stable and sustainable property market,” HDB added.

In November, HDB will roll out about 7,960 flats in Bedok, Geylang, Sembawang, Tengah, Toa Payoh and Yishun. Assisted living flats, also known as community care apartments, will also be offered in Toa Payoh, with senior-friendly fittings such as wheelchair-accessible bathrooms and other health and community services.